The 'Barbenheimer' Phenomenon is Unrepeatable

"The film industry's recent surge in happiness may also mark its final joyful moment for the foreseeable future. 

With the simultaneous release of "Barbie," a comedy by Greta Gerwig inspired by the Mattel doll, and Christopher Nolan's "Oppenheimer," a biopic recounting the story of the mastermind behind the atomic bomb, we find ourselves in the midst of a pop culture phenomenon known as "Barbenheimer." These two films, though vastly different in style and tone, have generated immense public interest by debuting on the same day. Many movie enthusiasts, who had been slow to return to theaters, are now eager to watch two of the year's most highly anticipated titles back-to-back.

Industry analysts are predicting a record-breaking box office weekend. "Barbie" is expected to open with well over $150 million in domestic earnings, possibly surpassing the opening gross of this year's leading film, "The Super Mario Bros. Movie." "Oppenheimer," also making its debut, is projected to earn more than $50 million, a remarkable achievement for a dense three-hour drama. For an industry still reeling from the impact of the pandemic and facing challenges from the rise of streaming, this dual success would typically be cause for widespread celebration in Hollywood.

However, any celebration will be accompanied by reservations, as these two films open during a dual strike that has brought the industry to a near-standstill. The Hollywood actors' strike reached its one-week mark on Friday, with 160,000 members of the SAG-AFTRA union joining the Writers Guild of America, which has been on strike since May. Both labor actions are expected to continue for months, disrupting plans to produce new studio films and endangering those already scheduled for release, as actors have been instructed not to promote them during the strike. Michael Moses, Chief Marketing Officer for Universal Pictures, remarked, "It's the best of times, it's the worst of times," highlighting the growing tension between the guilds and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers as "Barbenheimer" anticipation grew in recent weeks.

Even those celebrating the success of "Barbenheimer" are concerned that this weekend's box office success may be short-lived. There are no other blockbuster releases comparable to "Barbie" on the calendar until "Dune: Part Two" on November 3, and even that sci-fi sequel could face delays if the actors' strike persists, as stars like Timothée Chalamet, Zendaya, and Austin Butler would be unable to participate in the film's global press tour. Already, some upcoming films have had their release plans altered due to the SAG-AFTRA strike, including "White Bird" and "Problemista," which were scheduled for August but now lack official release dates. "Challengers," a tennis romance starring Zendaya, also withdrew from its prestigious slot as the opening-night title at the Venice Film Festival, moving its release to April 2024.

As Venice and the Toronto International Film Festival announce their lineups, there are concerns that they may lack the star-studded prestige titles typically sent by studios. Tony Angelotti, awards strategist for "Oppenheimer," questioned the feasibility of reserving travel and accommodations for major movie cast and crew: "Would they refund your money if the strike continues?"

While Hollywood awaits the next strike-related developments, Scott Sanders, a producer of the upcoming movie-musical adaptation of "The Color Purple," fears a sense of déjà vu. Despite meticulous planning for the release of the Fantasia Barrino-led film on Christmas Day, the hard work could be undone if Warner Bros. delays the movie, as it did with another Sanders-produced musical, "In the Heights," which was postponed for a year due to the pandemic and then released simultaneously in theaters and on HBO Max. Although the studio has not yet discussed postponing "The Color Purple" into 2024, Sanders remains cautious, especially if other holiday blockbusters or awards contenders start to shift their release dates.

The excitement surrounding "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" could reignite interest in moviegoing, but there may be few films left to capitalize on this momentum. Sanders asks, "Are we going to keep the momentum going from this weekend, or are we going to suddenly pull the emergency stop in the next month or two and go back to square one again?"

If such a decision is made, it will have a significant ripple effect. Theaters, which have barely recovered from the pandemic, will face further challenges, and films scheduled for 2024 might need to reschedule. Without the usual influx of year-end prestige films, this year's awards season could look drastically different, and in some ways, all too familiar. Sanders muses, "In the worst-case scenario, every studio decides to move their fourth-quarter movies to next year. Suddenly, the last contenders for awards are 'Barbie' and 'Oppenheimer.' Then what happens?"